Climate Mitigation in Intermediary Cities: Policies for Systemic Change in Kenya and Mozambique

Intermediary cities are becoming central to Africa’s urban future. Cities like Nakuru and Kiambu in Kenya and Beira and Quelimane in Mozambique are experiencing rapid demographic growth and spatial expansion. They are pivotal hubs for national economies and service delivery, yet their development paths remain unchartered. Unlike large urban centres where high emissions, car dependency and spatial fragmentation are already entrenched, these smaller cities still can avoid such lock-in. With much of their infrastructure and governance frameworks still in formation, these cities stand at a critical juncture, with a chance to adopt more sustainable, inclusive and climate-resilient models of urban development.

This report builds on the OECD’s systems innovation methodology for net-zero, adapting it to the specific context and challenges of intermediary cities, as well as UN-Habitat's work in challenge-driven innovation across cities. The aim is not only to understand current urban and transport dynamics, but also to support local governments in identifying the systemic drivers of unsustainable outcomes and in co-designing more effective strategies for transformation. It combines different analytical tools and participatory exercises to produce actionable insights for policymakers, city planners and development partners.

Urbanisation in Kenya and Mozambique is accelerating. In Kenya, the urban population is expected to increase by nearly 80% between 2020 and 2050. Mozambique’s urban built-up area is projected to more than triple over the same period. However, in both countries, urbanisation is largely uncoordinated, reinforcing car dependency and making service delivery costly and inefficient. Cities are increasingly reliant on informal motorised transport, contributing to rising congestion and emissions. Without timely intervention, these trends may become structural features of urban life, locking cities into carbon-intensive, socially unequal and economically fragile trajectories.

As part of this work, key stakeholders imagined their cities in the year 2050. In a series of workshops, they envisioned the cities having achieved inclusive and sustainable urban development. Across cities, the visions that emerged were remarkably consistent. Participants envisioned neighbourhoods where walking is safe and convenient, and where reliable and accessible public transport connects people to opportunities. Streets were re-imagined as inclusive public spaces shared by pedestrians, cyclists and local businesses. Green areas, clean air and safer, more vibrant environments were considered essential components of a better urban future.

To assess the distance between current realities and these long-term visions, the study applied systems thinking tools to better understand the dynamics shaping each city. In Nakuru and Kiambu, car-oriented investments continue to dominate transport budgets, even though most daily trips are made on foot or via informal services. Unplanned urban growth is increasing distances and deepening reliance on paratransit services. These trends reinforce a cycle of car dependency, land consumption and congestion, while emissions from transport have more than tripled over two decades. Beira and Quelimane face other types of pressures. In Beira, wide roads in the city centre offer potential for inclusive mobility, but these are increasingly dominated by private vehicles. Informal settlements surrounding the centre limit the city’s capacity to expand in a compact and connected manner, encouraging leapfrogging patterns that contribute to urban sprawl. Quelimane, on the other hand, has sustained a strong cycling culture, especially through the use of taxi bikes, but this low-emission system is increasingly vulnerable to rising motorisation, growing travel distances and a lack of protected infrastructure. In all four cities, weak integration between land use and transport planning, combined with limited institutional co-ordination, not only compounds these challenges, but may also be a source of unexpected policy results.

Building on this understanding, the next step in the process involved identifying structural factors driving unsustainable development, as well as co-designing practical responses. A central part of this effort was the identification of high-leverage goals (HLGs), which are strategic system shifts that can unlock broader transformation. These HLGs were specific to each city but often converged around similar priorities, such as reclaiming road space for people, linking housing and transport planning, improving public and shared mobility. Through collaborative workshops, stakeholders proposed concrete policy ideas and indicators to support these goals, providing an initial pool of ideas for locally driven and system-informed action.

To turn the visions into reality, the following areas of action emerged.

First, cities need to rethink how road space and public space are allocated. Infrastructure investment continues to prioritise the movement of motor vehicles, even in contexts where walking and cycling account for most trips. In Nakuru and Kiambu, more than 80% of the transport budget is dedicated to road construction or upgrading, with limited investment in non-motorised or public transport, or public space where people converge. Similar trends are observed in Beira. Re-balancing road space towards pedestrians, cyclists and shared transport (especially in central areas) can enhance accessibility, reduce emissions and contribute to safer and more liveable cities.

Second, urban development and infrastructure investment should be guided by accessibility rather than distance. Without integrated planning, housing and basic services are often located far apart, forcing residents to rely on private or informal transport. Promoting compact, mixed-use development and co-ordinating investment through transit-oriented strategies can reduce the need for long commutes and strengthen social inclusion. In Nakuru, for example, large investments in housing are not yet matched by adequate planning for connectivity and transport access. In Quelimane, there is still a window of opportunity to preserve and build upon a compact urban form, though this requires proactive co-ordination.

Third, it is essential to expand and improve sustainable mobility options. Informal paratransit services, such as minibuses and taxi motorbikes, remain essential in Nakuru and Kiambu and are starting to grow in Beira (whereas Quelimane has managed to avoid this due to local leadership). However, they are often unregulated and poorly integrated options. Developing inclusive public transport systems (such as bus rapid transit) with adequate financing, clear regulation and effective service integration can reduce fragmentation and better serve growing populations. Public fleet electrification, especially for shared modes, could offer important climate benefits and be more equitable than policies focused solely on private electric vehicles.

Fourth, stronger governance and institutional alignment are needed to plan and implement effective urban mobility strategies. Urban transport is shaped not only by infrastructure, but by regulatory frameworks, decision-making processes and public participation. Fragmented responsibilities and weak interdepartmental co-ordination often hinder strategic planning. Strengthening institutional mandates, fostering horizontal and vertical collaboration and embedding participatory planning can help these cities deliver more coherent and legitimate policies. In all four cities, the participatory processes facilitated by this project introduced new and innovative ways of working across departments and sectors.

The report also highlights the importance of monitoring and iterative learning. By developing indicators linked to their long-term visions, cities can track progress, adapt strategies as conditions change and ensure that investment decisions contribute to broader goals. Embedding these indicators into planning documents and appraisal processes can support more transparent and forward-looking decision-making.

Nakuru, Kiambu, Beira and Quelimane have the potential to shape the narrative of how intermediary cities in developing countries respond to climate and development challenges. To this end, this report aims to encourage these cities to move away from a “predict and provide” approach and develop vision-led strategies through a systems thinking approach. What is now required is commitment, co-ordination and the courage to challenge the business-as-usual.